Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230411 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  10.1  14.5  18.3  16.6  15.9  31.6  36.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  48.0  51.0  56.0  75.0 107.0  19.3   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  82.4  56.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  24.0  -1.0   4.0 -15.0  -2.0  13.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.2%       34.4%       35.3%
 25kt / 24h       55.7%       75.3%       65.5%
 30kt / 24h       54.4%       74.8%       64.6%
 35kt / 24h       54.4%       74.8%       64.6%
 40kt / 24h       19.0%       72.2%       45.6%
 45kt / 36h       41.8%       65.9%       53.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       51.2%       25.6%
 55kt / 48h       43.4%       53.4%       48.4%
 70kt / 48h       17.1%       31.2%       24.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%       11.7%        9.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.64

 SH182023 230411 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  10.1  14.5  18.3  16.6  15.9  31.6  36.8  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  61.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%