Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230411 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.70 120.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 100.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 15.6 18.5 20.3 20.0 30.8 39.0 60.0 F F N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 59.0 66.0 72.0 88.0 71.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N F N U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 36.5 13.8 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -10.0 -16.0 -30.0 -25.0 2.0 24.0 33.0 3.0 U U VU VU U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 53.0 56.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -6.0 12.0 136.0 N N N N N F U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 84.3% 68.3% 76.3% 25kt / 24h 94.5% 88.0% 91.3% 30kt / 24h 94.5% 88.0% 91.3% 35kt / 24h 94.5% 88.0% 91.3% 40kt / 24h 51.0% 86.3% 68.7% 45kt / 36h 70.1% 70.5% 70.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 59.9% 30.0% 55kt / 48h 36.2% 40.7% 38.4% 70kt / 48h 15.3% 22.4% 18.9% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.74 SH182023 230411 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.70 120.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 15.6 18.5 20.3 20.0 30.8 39.0 60.0 U U N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 53.0 56.0 47.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -6.0 12.0 136.0 N N N N N U F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%