Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230412 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.70 119.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 80.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 21.9 17.0 18.1 22.5 39.2 35.5 44.1 N N F F N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 59.0 65.0 71.0 75.0 123.0 42.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N F N U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 77.3 24.2 9.7 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 -20.0 -13.0 -15.0 -2.0 5.0 31.0 66.0 U VU U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 48.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 54.0 57.0 52.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -11.0 12.0 32.0 N N N N N F U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 35.1% 24.5% 29.8% 25kt / 24h 52.5% 57.1% 54.8% 30kt / 24h 52.5% 57.1% 54.8% 35kt / 24h 52.5% 57.1% 54.8% 40kt / 24h 12.7% 54.2% 33.4% 45kt / 36h 42.0% 32.4% 37.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 17.5% 8.7% 55kt / 48h 14.6% 14.0% 14.3% 70kt / 48h 4.7% 3.7% 4.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.70 SH182023 230412 00UTC Storm Located at : -15.70 119.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 21.9 17.0 18.1 22.5 39.2 35.5 44.1 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 48.0 52.0 51.0 50.0 54.0 57.0 52.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -11.0 12.0 32.0 N N N N N U F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%