Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230412 12UTC Storm Located at : -16.50 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 20.0 17.5 18.0 33.3 47.9 46.6 63.8 N N F F U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 69.0 74.0 80.0 112.0 39.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N F U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 16.5 12.2 13.6 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 0.0 16.0 40.0 38.0 21.0 27.0 15.0 U U U N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 49.0 48.0 51.0 40.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 50.0 51.0 88.0 N N N N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 69.9% 39.9% 54.9% 25kt / 24h 64.3% 62.0% 63.1% 30kt / 24h 64.3% 61.8% 63.0% 35kt / 24h 64.3% 61.8% 63.0% 40kt / 24h 39.7% 58.2% 49.0% 45kt / 36h 78.3% 41.8% 60.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 27.5% 13.7% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.72 SH182023 230412 12UTC Storm Located at : -16.50 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 20.0 17.5 18.0 33.3 47.9 46.6 63.8 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 49.0 48.0 51.0 40.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 50.0 51.0 88.0 N N N N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5%