Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230412 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.10 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 19.1 18.0 25.0 41.8 50.1 50.1 50.1 N N F N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 82.0 127.0 73.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N F N U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 28.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 22.0 65.0 61.0 19.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 VU U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 50.0 52.0 50.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 15.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 62.3% 29.3% 45.8% 25kt / 24h 49.5% 47.1% 48.3% 30kt / 24h 48.2% 43.4% 45.8% 35kt / 24h 48.2% 43.4% 45.8% 40kt / 24h 25.2% 39.7% 32.5% 45kt / 36h 62.1% 19.4% 40.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.66 SH182023 230412 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.10 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 19.1 18.0 25.0 41.8 50.1 50.1 50.1 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 50.0 52.0 50.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 15.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 2.2% 1.1%