Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230413 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.70 118.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 100.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 27.6 32.0 39.9 61.9 58.2 58.2 58.2 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 110.0 51.0 34.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 -4.0 -33.0 -28.3 -28.3 -28.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 83.0 30.0 30.0 18.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 F N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 52.0 46.0 47.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 6.0 -1.0 25.0 116.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 F N N VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 53.7% 12.6% 33.1% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.26 SH182023 230413 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.70 118.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 27.6 32.0 39.9 61.9 58.2 58.2 58.2 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 52.0 46.0 47.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 6.0 -1.0 25.0 116.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 U N N VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 11.8% 5.9%