Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230413 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.50 119.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.4 34.1 38.5 44.8 53.4 55.1 44.2 44.2 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 33.3 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 27.3 -12.0 -29.5 -24.6 -5.7 10.5 10.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 46.0 20.0 11.0 -14.0 -8.0 -13.0 -13.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 46.0 50.0 49.0 47.0 41.0 35.0 35.0 U VU U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 1.0 30.0 65.0 81.0 60.0 25.0 25.0 N N VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 24.6% 4.8% 14.7% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.90 SH182023 230413 12UTC Storm Located at : -19.50 119.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.4 34.1 38.5 44.8 53.4 55.1 44.2 44.2 N F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 46.0 50.0 49.0 47.0 41.0 35.0 35.0 F VF F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 1.0 30.0 65.0 81.0 60.0 25.0 25.0 N N VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 29.9% 31.6% 30.8%