Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230413 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.50    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  45.7  47.8  55.5  64.2  61.9  45.8  47.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  17.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.3   8.7  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.0   7.7 -10.8 -19.1  -9.6  27.4  50.0  50.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  15.0  45.0  30.0  -2.0  -7.0  25.0   5.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  46.0  39.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  37.0  62.0  81.0  40.0  28.0  25.0   8.0  N VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.80

 SH182023 230413 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -20.50    119.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.