Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH182023 230414 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30    121.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  49.4  56.2  67.0  72.7  80.1  66.3  66.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.5  -0.2  -6.3  -8.2  -5.3  -3.3   3.2   3.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  29.0  35.0   7.0   0.0 -18.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  44.0  48.0  41.0  37.0  34.0  27.0  27.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  61.0  97.0  81.0  96.0  26.0  16.0  16.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.06

 SH182023 230414 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.30    121.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.