Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192023 230516 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -6.70     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  18.8  17.6  19.2  23.2  24.2  27.0  24.8  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  12.0  16.0  30.0  36.0  29.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  67.0  67.0  64.6  62.3  69.3  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0 109.0 105.0 123.0 112.0  84.0  47.0  33.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.5%       15.4%       17.9%
 25kt / 24h       37.1%       39.5%       38.3%
 30kt / 24h       25.3%       37.2%       31.2%
 35kt / 24h       25.3%       37.2%       31.2%
 40kt / 24h       25.3%       33.8%       29.6%
 45kt / 36h       47.0%       19.9%       33.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.1%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h       10.1%        6.7%        8.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 SH192023 230516 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -6.70     75.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  18.8  17.6  19.2  23.2  24.2  27.0  24.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%