Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192023 230516 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.30     75.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  30.0  32.0  33.0  26.6  20.3  20.7  32.9  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  12.0  17.0  22.0  26.0  24.0  20.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.0  59.6  57.3  55.1  55.1  59.6  64.3  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  91.0  89.0  92.0  61.0  42.0  33.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -6.0  -4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.7%        6.6%       11.6%
 25kt / 24h       14.1%       11.7%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.1%        7.4%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%        7.4%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%        6.8%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h       25.5%        5.0%       15.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 SH192023 230516 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.30     75.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  30.0  32.0  33.0  26.6  20.3  20.7  32.9  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  50.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -6.0  -4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%