Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192023 230516 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.00     74.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  18.9  23.6  26.9  26.0  27.9  27.7  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  18.0  26.0  33.0  32.0  24.0  20.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  59.6  57.3  55.1  57.3  64.3  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0 123.0 117.0 129.0 109.0  65.0  28.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.0%        6.4%        9.2%
 25kt / 24h       19.9%       15.9%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.4%       10.6%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.8%       10.6%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        8.8%        9.9%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h       35.5%        7.4%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 SH192023 230516 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.00     74.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  18.9  23.6  26.9  26.0  27.9  27.7  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%