Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192023 230520 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.20     69.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  41.2  38.1  33.9  28.6  24.7  29.8  24.1  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  14.0  14.0  15.0  17.0  18.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 114.6 112.3 112.3 110.1 110.1 107.9 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  11.0 -15.0 -18.0  -7.0  32.0  47.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.16

 SH192023 230520 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.20     69.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  41.2  38.1  33.9  28.6  24.7  29.8  24.1  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%