Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192023 230523 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  38.2  37.7  37.5  41.4  46.9  58.5  66.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  13.0  13.0   9.0  12.0  12.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4 110.5 110.5 106.6 106.6 103.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -23.0 -41.0 -31.0  13.0  53.0  60.0  37.0  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  41.0  40.0  40.0  42.0  49.0  47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 SH192023 230523 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.