Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012023 230419 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      4.80    158.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  20.5  24.1  22.6  23.3  25.9  26.3  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  110.0  91.0  80.0  77.0  78.0  70.0  57.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   151.0 155.0 192.0 154.0 112.0 113.0  61.0  28.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  69.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0   7.0   8.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        7.4%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       50.3%       62.5%       56.4%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       38.5%       27.7%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%       36.1%       21.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       34.8%       20.6%
 45kt / 36h       34.5%       74.4%       54.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       52.0%       26.0%
 55kt / 48h       51.3%       56.6%       53.9%
 70kt / 48h       35.8%       53.1%       44.4%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       71.3%       66.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP012023 230419 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      4.80    158.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  20.5  24.1  22.6  23.3  25.9  26.3  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  69.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   7.0   7.0   8.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%