Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012023 230419 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.60    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  27.9  26.6  25.2  20.5  25.3  24.9  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0  86.0  87.0  93.0  92.0  80.0  54.0  37.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 132.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   158.0 197.0 132.0 117.0  90.0  75.0  30.0 -11.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  63.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   8.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        8.1%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       54.7%       61.5%       58.1%
 30kt / 24h       21.8%       36.8%       29.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       35.4%       23.2%
 40kt / 24h       10.9%       34.7%       22.8%
 45kt / 36h       41.7%       74.4%       58.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       52.1%       26.0%
 55kt / 48h       51.3%       55.1%       53.2%
 70kt / 48h       35.8%       52.8%       44.3%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       66.0%       63.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP012023 230419 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.60    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  27.9  26.6  25.2  20.5  25.3  24.9  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  63.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   8.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%