Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012023 230420 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.00    157.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  26.5  26.4  24.5  24.0  32.0  28.4  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  76.0  79.0  80.0  73.0  52.0  41.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 129.3 124.6 120.1 117.9 117.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   145.0 108.0 107.0  90.0  86.0  38.0  17.0  17.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.9%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       29.0%       40.0%       34.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       20.0%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       18.8%       11.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       18.6%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%       43.5%       31.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.6%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       26.2%       20.6%       23.4%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       13.3%       19.0%
 65kt / 72h       49.7%       21.3%       35.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP012023 230420 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.00    157.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  26.5  26.4  24.5  24.0  32.0  28.4  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  56.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%