Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012023 230420 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    156.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  22.2  21.5  25.9  31.0  28.7  29.0  26.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  76.0  73.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  68.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 117.0 114.6 110.1 107.9 105.7 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  91.0 112.0  97.0  74.0  47.0  18.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  61.0  57.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        7.5%        6.7%
 25kt / 24h       34.4%       45.5%       40.0%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       27.4%       21.9%
 35kt / 24h       10.3%       27.4%       18.8%
 40kt / 24h       10.3%       26.7%       18.5%
 45kt / 36h       17.7%       34.9%       26.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.7%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h       20.8%       16.1%       18.4%
 70kt / 48h       20.8%        8.7%       14.7%
 65kt / 72h       38.1%       13.4%       25.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 WP012023 230420 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    156.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  22.2  21.5  25.9  31.0  28.7  29.0  26.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  61.0  57.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%