Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012023 230421 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    156.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  24.0  27.9  33.2  28.3  30.4  26.3  27.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   76.0  76.0  79.0  78.0  64.0  46.0  43.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 119.3 117.0 114.6 110.1 110.1 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0 108.0  95.0  74.0  31.0   3.0  12.0  -2.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.0%        5.7%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       23.4%       32.1%       27.7%
 30kt / 24h       12.0%       16.1%       14.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       15.6%       12.2%
 40kt / 24h        8.9%       15.6%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h       14.8%       24.1%       19.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.4%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.2%       10.4%       11.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%        4.7%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       15.3%        9.6%       12.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 WP012023 230421 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    156.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  24.0  27.9  33.2  28.3  30.4  26.3  27.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   1.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%