Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012023 230421 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    156.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  31.0  33.1  30.5  27.5  25.1  27.3  28.5  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  78.0  80.0  75.0  58.0  40.0  52.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 119.3 117.0 112.3 110.1 112.3 117.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  92.0  76.0  45.0  11.0  -3.0  19.0  19.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        3.6%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h       14.8%       23.7%       19.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       11.5%        8.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       10.5%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.2%       10.3%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       15.8%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%        7.8%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        2.9%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       16.6%        7.8%       12.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 WP012023 230421 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    156.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  31.0  33.1  30.5  27.5  25.1  27.3  28.5  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   7.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%