Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012023 230421 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    156.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  32.6  34.2  31.8  28.0  22.3  30.0  32.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  76.0  77.0  76.0  65.0  46.0  43.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 117.0 114.6 112.3 110.1 107.9 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  57.0  34.0  32.0  24.0  22.0  42.0   8.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.8%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       13.0%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.5%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        4.8%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        4.7%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%        9.1%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        4.7%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        1.7%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h       10.6%        4.5%        7.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 WP012023 230421 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.40    156.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  32.6  34.2  31.8  28.0  22.3  30.0  32.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%