Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012023 230421 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  29.8  30.4  29.7  24.8  27.5  29.0  31.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  79.0  72.0  62.0  43.0  39.0  55.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 124.3 124.3 122.0 117.3 115.1 117.3 119.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  23.0  23.0   5.0  -8.0  24.0  19.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.9%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        3.3%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.9%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.5%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%        2.7%        6.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 WP012023 230421 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  29.8  30.4  29.7  24.8  27.5  29.0  31.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%