Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022023 230520 00UTC Storm Located at : 5.40 149.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 89.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 24.6 23.0 26.9 36.6 36.8 26.6 24.4 N N N N U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 91.0 77.0 74.0 76.0 89.0 95.0 95.0 83.0 F N N N F F F N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 172.0 178.0 181.0 202.0 189.0 145.0 158.0 84.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 81.0 80.0 78.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 5.1% 3.8% 25kt / 24h 51.0% 60.9% 55.9% 30kt / 24h 13.8% 35.9% 24.9% 35kt / 24h 4.5% 35.3% 19.9% 40kt / 24h 2.4% 32.3% 17.3% 45kt / 36h 28.9% 67.4% 48.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 39.9% 20.0% 55kt / 48h 50.9% 42.8% 46.8% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 40.5% 32.6% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 72.8% 67.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.28 WP022023 230520 00UTC Storm Located at : 5.40 149.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 24.6 23.0 26.9 36.6 36.8 26.6 24.4 N N N N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 81.0 80.0 78.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%