Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022023 230520 06UTC Storm Located at : 5.70 149.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 75.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 20.7 24.2 37.6 36.7 41.1 21.3 27.9 N N N U U VU N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 71.0 72.0 79.0 94.0 92.0 85.0 77.0 N N N N F F N N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 199.0 195.0 225.0 193.0 202.0 173.0 125.0 34.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 75.0 75.0 72.0 70.0 66.0 63.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.7% 14.4% 11.6% 25kt / 24h 68.7% 74.2% 71.4% 30kt / 24h 26.2% 54.7% 40.5% 35kt / 24h 11.5% 54.7% 33.1% 40kt / 24h 9.3% 51.2% 30.2% 45kt / 36h 40.5% 78.0% 59.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 55.9% 27.9% 55kt / 48h 51.1% 50.9% 51.0% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 50.0% 37.4% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 75.3% 68.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.18 WP022023 230520 06UTC Storm Located at : 5.70 149.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 20.7 24.2 37.6 36.7 41.1 21.3 27.9 N N N F F VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 75.0 75.0 72.0 70.0 66.0 63.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%