Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230520 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.70    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  26.6  34.0  37.2  28.5  26.4  26.3  29.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  58.0  60.0  67.0  89.0  92.0  98.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   175.0 171.0 200.0 199.0 122.0 132.0  54.0  32.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.8%       13.1%       11.9%
 25kt / 24h       61.7%       65.7%       63.7%
 30kt / 24h       22.1%       45.0%       33.5%
 35kt / 24h       10.5%       45.0%       27.8%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       41.6%       25.7%
 45kt / 36h       36.8%       69.5%       53.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       44.4%       22.2%
 55kt / 48h       50.8%       48.7%       49.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       43.4%       34.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       64.0%       63.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 WP022023 230520 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      5.70    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  26.6  34.0  37.2  28.5  26.4  26.3  29.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%