Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230520 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.10    149.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  37.9  38.4  35.2  31.3  19.9  24.7  30.4  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  61.0  73.0  89.0  93.0  86.0  77.0  76.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   210.0 210.0 198.0 173.0 145.0 123.0  55.0  42.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.4%       18.1%       20.8%
 25kt / 24h       75.3%       71.7%       73.5%
 30kt / 24h       38.9%       55.9%       47.4%
 35kt / 24h       29.7%       55.9%       42.8%
 40kt / 24h       29.7%       52.1%       40.9%
 45kt / 36h       46.6%       71.0%       58.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       46.7%       23.3%
 55kt / 48h       51.0%       52.3%       51.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       44.0%       34.4%
 65kt / 72h       61.6%       55.8%       58.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 WP022023 230520 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.10    149.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  37.9  38.4  35.2  31.3  19.9  24.7  30.4  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  75.0  75.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%