Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230521 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.80    149.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  36.1  37.1  30.3  26.7  26.0  31.1  30.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  75.0  95.0  98.0  98.0  95.0  87.0  84.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   190.0 191.0 145.0 129.0 111.0  73.0   2.0  59.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.1%       11.3%       16.2%
 25kt / 24h       67.3%       61.5%       64.4%
 30kt / 24h       36.0%       43.3%       39.7%
 35kt / 24h       31.6%       43.3%       37.5%
 40kt / 24h       31.6%       40.8%       36.2%
 45kt / 36h       41.7%       57.0%       49.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.6%       15.3%
 55kt / 48h       46.7%       39.0%       42.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       27.5%       26.1%
 65kt / 72h       50.7%       36.0%       43.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.74

 WP022023 230521 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.80    149.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  36.1  37.1  30.3  26.7  26.0  31.1  30.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%