Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230521 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.80    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  28.3  28.6  28.0  25.8  27.1  34.3  31.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  99.0  97.0  98.0  98.0  86.0  83.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   144.0 109.0  99.0  89.0  48.0  24.0  24.0  13.0 VF  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.4%       35.1%       53.3%
 25kt / 24h       85.9%       78.5%       82.2%
 30kt / 24h       77.1%       74.3%       75.7%
 35kt / 24h       74.6%       74.3%       74.4%
 40kt / 24h       74.6%       71.9%       73.2%
 45kt / 36h       64.8%       61.2%       63.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       38.9%       19.5%
 55kt / 48h       43.6%       38.5%       41.1%
 70kt / 48h       22.7%       18.2%       20.5%
 65kt / 72h       26.2%       17.6%       21.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP022023 230521 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.80    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  28.3  28.6  28.0  25.8  27.1  34.3  31.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%