Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230521 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  32.7  29.7  24.9  29.8  36.1  36.8  26.2  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  97.0  98.0  99.0  91.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  78.0  87.0  76.0  26.0  54.0  36.0  17.0  F  N  F  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       72.1%       38.0%       55.0%
 25kt / 24h       82.9%       77.3%       80.1%
 30kt / 24h       76.6%       75.3%       76.0%
 35kt / 24h       69.9%       75.3%       72.6%
 40kt / 24h       68.2%       72.5%       70.4%
 45kt / 36h       57.5%       51.1%       54.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       29.3%       14.6%
 55kt / 48h       32.6%       27.0%       29.8%
 70kt / 48h       11.0%        8.7%        9.9%
 65kt / 72h       18.7%       10.0%       14.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP022023 230521 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  32.7  29.7  24.9  29.8  36.1  36.8  26.2  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  69.0  66.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%