Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230522 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.10    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  29.7  30.4  33.5  35.3  30.5  31.0  25.2  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  97.0  97.0  97.0  95.0  92.0  86.0 104.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 119.0 101.0  67.0   0.0  31.0   9.0  50.0  F  F  F  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.2%       26.6%       46.4%
 25kt / 24h       68.7%       56.5%       62.6%
 30kt / 24h       58.8%       47.7%       53.3%
 35kt / 24h       53.0%       47.7%       50.4%
 40kt / 24h       53.0%       45.4%       49.2%
 45kt / 36h       52.8%       26.8%       39.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.1%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       17.9%        9.2%       13.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h       15.9%        5.6%       10.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP022023 230522 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.10    147.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  29.7  30.4  33.5  35.3  30.5  31.0  25.2  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%