Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230522 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.50    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  28.6  30.9  31.9  34.0  36.4  34.1  32.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  94.0  94.0  94.0  91.0  66.0  93.0 134.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F VF
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 123.0  52.0  -6.0  12.0  27.0   2.0  20.0 VF  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       65.8%       29.4%       47.6%
 25kt / 24h       64.8%       55.1%       59.9%
 30kt / 24h       54.1%       48.3%       51.2%
 35kt / 24h       49.0%       48.3%       48.7%
 40kt / 24h       49.0%       44.9%       46.9%
 45kt / 36h       56.2%       29.0%       42.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.4%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%        6.7%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP022023 230522 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.50    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  28.6  30.9  31.9  34.0  36.4  34.1  32.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   5.0   2.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%