Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230522 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     96.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  28.8  27.4  27.3  32.2  26.5  25.8  19.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  96.0  94.0  92.0  68.0  91.0 133.0 118.0  F  F  F  F  N  F VF  F
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  23.0  26.0  48.0  35.0  52.0  55.0  44.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.6%       14.1%       27.3%
 25kt / 24h       36.2%       30.4%       33.3%
 30kt / 24h       26.6%       23.2%       24.9%
 35kt / 24h       21.1%       23.2%       22.2%
 40kt / 24h       18.2%       20.7%       19.4%
 45kt / 36h       54.1%       14.7%       34.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.2%        3.1%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 WP022023 230522 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.9  28.8  27.4  27.3  32.2  26.5  25.8  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  69.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%