Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230523 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  33.3  32.6  32.7  25.6  29.8  20.8  19.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  95.0  14.0 111.0 126.0 132.0  93.0  72.0  F  F  U  F  F VF  F  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  68.0  70.0  51.0  72.0  72.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.8%        6.2%       20.5%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%        6.1%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP022023 230523 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  33.3  32.6  32.7  25.6  29.8  20.8  19.4  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.9%        3.4%