Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230523 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    146.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  34.5  32.7  32.2  25.4  23.6  20.7  21.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  97.0  10.0 111.0 126.0 126.0  92.0  80.0  F  F  U  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  25.0  14.0  29.0  40.0  32.0  54.0  66.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.9%        2.7%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.7%        2.4%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP022023 230523 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20    146.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  34.5  32.7  32.2  25.4  23.6  20.7  21.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       10.2%        5.1%