Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230524 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    145.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  28.3  24.5  26.5  22.4  21.1  20.2  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  92.0 122.0 127.0 127.0  91.0  99.0  72.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  33.0  40.0  44.0  38.0  31.0  21.0  97.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP022023 230524 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    145.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  28.3  24.5  26.5  22.4  21.1  20.2  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  68.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       17.4%        8.7%