Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230524 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  25.5  27.6  24.1  18.6  13.2  13.8  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  110.0 114.0 119.0 118.0 128.0  98.0  81.0  49.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  36.0  38.0  18.0  21.0  58.0  45.0  83.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  75.0  78.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        2.3%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%        4.6%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.4%        2.6%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        2.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP022023 230524 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  25.5  27.6  24.1  18.6  13.2  13.8  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  75.0  78.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.6%        4.3%