Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230524 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  25.4  23.2  19.3  20.5  15.8  19.0  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  115.0 121.0 120.0 132.0  94.0  94.0  56.0  62.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  26.0  38.0  30.0  51.0  43.0  91.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0   6.0  16.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.0%        5.0%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       13.8%       10.3%       12.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%        6.5%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%        5.5%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP022023 230524 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  25.4  23.2  19.3  20.5  15.8  19.0  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0   6.0  16.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%