Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230525 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    143.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  15.0  14.8  18.4  15.8  17.1  18.8  16.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  120.0 126.0 120.0  94.0  89.0  57.0  64.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  19.0  34.0  38.0  46.0 103.0  82.0  76.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  16.0  11.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.5%       16.0%       34.3%
 25kt / 24h       28.3%       19.5%       23.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP022023 230525 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    143.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  15.0  14.8  18.4  15.8  17.1  18.8  16.8  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  16.0  11.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%