Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230525 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  21.4  22.5  22.8  17.1  19.1  21.3  27.6  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  125.0 126.0 100.0  92.0  79.0  72.0  95.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  48.0  50.0  39.0  45.0  93.0 121.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0   7.0   1.0   3.0   8.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 WP022023 230525 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  21.4  22.5  22.8  17.1  19.1  21.3  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0   7.0   1.0   3.0   8.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%