Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230525 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]    100.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  14.2  13.6  14.3  14.7  17.8  22.5  27.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  92.0  93.0  74.0  69.0  67.0  56.0  39.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  23.0  38.0  70.0 104.0  90.0  37.0  48.0  U  U  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0  -1.0   2.0  13.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 WP022023 230525 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    140.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  14.2  13.6  14.3  14.7  17.8  22.5  27.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0  -1.0   2.0  13.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%