Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230526 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]    100.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  19.8  24.5  20.6  25.6  20.3  24.1  18.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  80.0  67.0  58.0  69.0  47.0  44.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0 139.0 145.0 104.0  57.0  35.0   8.0  14.0  F VF VF  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  12.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   1.0   6.0   8.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.42

 WP022023 230526 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  19.8  24.5  20.6  25.6  20.3  24.1  18.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  12.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   1.0   6.0   8.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.9%        3.4%