Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230528 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  22.1  25.6  23.5  25.7  26.4  24.0  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  79.0  78.0  71.0  71.0  61.0  52.0  49.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  71.0  50.0  27.0  53.0  63.0  76.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   7.0   3.0   6.0   8.0  11.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        4.6%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       10.8%       10.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%        7.1%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        6.6%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        6.0%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h       40.7%        4.6%       22.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP022023 230528 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    127.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  22.1  25.6  23.5  25.7  26.4  24.0  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   7.0   3.0   6.0   8.0  11.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%