Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230528 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  19.3  20.6  22.4  25.2  16.1  12.5  15.8  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  58.0  57.0  51.0  55.0  48.0  45.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.3  57.0  50.1  39.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -30.0 -31.0  15.0  10.0  17.0  85.0  59.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   5.0  11.0   5.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%        8.6%       10.2%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       14.2%       11.7%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%       10.6%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.5%       10.5%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        9.7%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h       36.5%        5.9%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP022023 230528 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  19.3  20.6  22.4  25.2  16.1  12.5  15.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   4.0   5.0  11.0   5.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%