Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230529 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  17.6  19.2  24.0  22.5  17.7  14.7  12.7  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  50.0  45.0  35.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  54.6  54.6  54.6  45.7  45.7  35.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  14.0  11.0   3.0 -14.0  69.0  57.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0  10.0  15.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.5%        8.6%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       14.6%       12.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       10.5%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       10.5%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        9.6%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h       37.9%        6.0%       21.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 WP022023 230529 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    126.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  17.6  19.2  24.0  22.5  17.7  14.7  12.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0  10.0  15.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%