Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230529 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  18.8  24.0  25.4  19.6  18.5  17.0  14.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  39.0  41.0  23.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  59.3  57.0  52.3  45.7  29.8  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  11.0   3.0   6.0  28.0  53.0  63.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  83.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  15.0  21.0  11.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0  N  U  U VU  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        5.9%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%        9.7%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%        6.5%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%        6.5%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.1%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h       28.4%        4.2%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 WP022023 230529 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  18.8  24.0  25.4  19.6  18.5  17.0  14.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  83.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  15.0  21.0  11.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0  N  F  F VF  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%