Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230529 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  26.6  29.3  26.9  17.8  20.1  15.2  17.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  41.0  44.0  18.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  64.3  62.0  59.6  55.1  46.5  33.0  19.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  24.0  20.0 -10.0  53.0  45.0  37.0  25.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  14.0  15.0  13.0   8.0   3.0   0.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        1.8%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        3.3%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        1.7%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%        1.3%        7.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 WP022023 230529 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    125.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  26.6  29.3  26.9  17.8  20.1  15.2  17.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  14.0  15.0  13.0   8.0   3.0   0.0  11.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%