Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230529 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  25.9  27.3  20.9  21.2  16.9  17.1  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  38.0  38.0  40.0  39.0  21.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.0  69.6  67.3  65.1  58.6  43.0  31.1  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  15.0   0.0  14.0  62.0  35.0  20.0  -8.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0  11.0  11.0   9.0   5.0   1.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        0.5%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 WP022023 230529 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  25.9  27.3  20.9  21.2  16.9  17.1  18.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0  11.0  11.0   9.0   5.0   1.0   9.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%