Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230530 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  29.9  22.6  26.1  21.2  15.0  17.9  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  35.0  36.0  34.0  19.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.3  75.1  70.7  66.5  54.8  42.7  39.6  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -3.0  25.0  56.0  73.0  -2.0   0.0   9.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  21.0  16.0  17.0  12.0   4.0   8.0   3.0  N VU  U  U  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 WP022023 230530 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  29.9  22.6  26.1  21.2  15.0  17.9  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  21.0  16.0  17.0  12.0   4.0   8.0   3.0  N VF  F  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%