Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230530 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  26.1  21.3  19.5  14.9  17.4  18.0  19.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  37.0  37.0  33.0   8.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.1  80.7  76.5  72.4  57.7  49.6  46.5  35.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  70.0  63.0  51.0  13.0   3.0  -8.0 -34.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  17.0  10.0   7.0   0.0   9.0   7.0   3.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.8%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        0.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 WP022023 230530 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  26.1  21.3  19.5  14.9  17.4  18.0  19.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  17.0  10.0   7.0   0.0   9.0   7.0   3.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%