Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230530 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  19.3  18.4  15.8  13.6  20.5  19.2  17.1  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  35.0  22.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.7  79.4  71.6  62.7  54.6  47.2  32.0  24.7  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  81.0  79.0  46.0  55.0 -17.0 -46.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  76.0  73.0  77.0  75.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  13.0  11.0   7.0   2.0  10.0  11.0  -4.0 VU  U  U  N  N  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        3.9%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.9%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 WP022023 230530 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    125.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.